Export Potential Map
ITC's model of untapped export potential: how much more of your product each market could realistically absorb.
Overview
Export Potential Map, or EPM, is different in kind from the other tools in the suite. Where Trade Map records what happened, EPM is a model that estimates what should happen. It projects the exports a country ought to be able to achieve in each market, then shows the gap between that potential and actual trade, which is the untapped opportunity.
The estimate combines three ingredients: the exporter's supply performance, the target market's demand, and the bilateral ease of trading between them. Because it is forward-looking and uses economic projections, EPM is the ITC tool closest in spirit to a decision aid, which is precisely why understanding its assumptions matters before you trust its ranking.
Used well, EPM is an excellent shortlisting instrument. It surfaces markets you might never have considered and quantifies the room to grow in each. Used carelessly, it can feel like an answer when it is really a very good starting hypothesis built on one fixed set of weights.
New to the terminology? Every technical term is explained in our trade glossary, including HS code and rules of origin.
What data you'll find
Export potential value
The exports a country could realistically achieve per product and per destination, expressed as a value you can rank.
Untapped potential
The gap between potential and actual exports. This is where growth lives, because a market can have large potential that is already largely realised.
Diversification indicators
Signals for promising new products an exporter could add, not just new markets for existing products.
Component breakdown
The underlying supply, demand and ease elements, so you can see whether a ranking is driven by demand, a tariff advantage or logistics.
How to find markets with the biggest untapped demand for your product
Goal: Find the markets with the biggest untapped demand for your product.
- 01
Select your country as exporter
EPM models potential from a specific origin, so start by telling it where you export from.
- 02
Find your product
EPM uses its own product groups mapped from the HS. Pick the group that best matches what you sell, noting that it may be broader than a single HS6 line.
- 03
Read the ranked markets by potential
Start with markets ranked by potential value to see where the largest realistic opportunity sits for your product.
- 04
Switch to the untapped view
A market can have large potential that is already realised. The untapped view isolates the gap, which is where new growth actually is.
- 05
Decompose the top markets
Click into a market to see why it ranks: strong demand, a tariff advantage, or logistical ease. The reason changes how you would enter.
- 06
Sanity-check against actuals
Cross-check your top three against Trade Map's recorded flows. If the model and reality diverge sharply, understand why before you invest.
Strengths
- Free access to serious, peer-reviewed economic modelling.
- Forward-looking: it uses GDP projections rather than only past trade.
- Excellent for building a shortlist you would not have reached by intuition.
- The component breakdown explains why a market ranks, not just that it does.
Limitations
- One fixed methodology for everyone: the weights are ITC's, not yours. The model cannot know your risk appetite, your logistics reality, or that you would trade some demand for a stabler market.
- Product groups are coarser than HS6 in places, so a group may blend items with different dynamics.
- National-brand factors such as certification and distribution strength sit outside the model.
Frequently asked questions
EPM ranks markets with ITC's weights. Market Selection ranks them with yours.
Export Potential Map is the closest thing ITC has to a recommendation engine, and it is excellent, for the average exporter. But the model's trade-offs are fixed.
JTH Market Selection makes the weighting yours: dial up stability, dial down distance, exclude regions, and add governance and ease-of-business indicators the EPM model does not include, then re-rank in seconds. Use EPM for the economist's answer, and Market Selection for your answer.
Related guides
ITC Trade Map
The world's reference database for trade statistics: values, volumes, growth and market shares for 220+ countries and every HS product code.
Market Access Map (MacMap)
Look up the tariff any country charges on your product: MFN and preferential rates, quotas, trade remedies and regulatory requirements.
Investment Map
FDI statistics alongside trade and tariff data: where investment flows in your sector, and from whom.
JTrade Help is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the International Trade Centre. Tool names belong to their owners. Guides are based on public documentation and hands-on use; always check the official site for current features.